CLIMATE CHANGE HYPOTHESIS

CLIMATE CHANGE- HYPOTHESIS

“A fact is a simple statement that everyone believes in. It is innocent unless found guilty. A hypothesis is a novel suggestion that no one wants to believe. It is guilty unless found effective”.

(Edward Tell)

 That ‘humans are not responsible for climate change’ is a comforting notion; but my hypothesis states that ‘humans are responsible for climate change and can stop it by tackling real causes’ (and not effects/ symptoms). The term ‘Global Warming’ has lost credibility in the last few years due to extremely cold winters in some parts of the world. Extreme weather is a baffling phenomenon in ‘Climate Change’, with some places getting hotter and drier; torrential rain/ snowstorms in winter; and increasing Antarctic sea ice. Increase in average temperature by 3⁰C is likely with the present state of affairs and drastic attempts are being made to keep it well below 2⁰C. Presently, precipitation is untimely, too much or too little, which affects food production. The south-western monsoon that normally reached Mumbai in first week of June now arrives only in end-July. Europe and USA face severe winter snowstorms, and even Niagara Falls has frozen over. Storms, hurricanes, tornados and floods are more frequent and severe.

The Measure of Warming. The first fallacy is ‘to measure global warming in terms of temperature alone’. Heat Budget is the perfect balance between incoming heat absorbed by Earth and outgoing heat escaping it in the form of radiation. If the balance is disturbed, Earth would get progressively warmer or cooler with time. The water and day-night cycles maintain this balance, with ice (latent heat- 80 cal/ gm) and humidity in air (latent heat 540 cal/ gm) playing a big role. Warm air that flows over water bodies is cooled by evaporation, which moderates temperature and increases relative humidity. This causes the ‘sticky thermometer syndrome’.  Warm summer air holds greater quantities of water vapor and triggers heavy precipitation as it cools during monsoon or rises against a mountain. Increased water vapor (relative humidity) is the effect and not the cause of warming and leads to extreme weather like the cloudburst in Uttarakhand of 2013 and floods in Chennai. Monsoon in Pune earlier used to be a steady drizzle for three days, followed by a few days of sunlight that boosted plant growth, which has changed now. The theoretically acceptable increase of 2⁰C in ‘average global temperature’ is misleading, because increasing relative humidity will be intolerable. ‘Heat Index’ of air takes into account water vapor (latent heat of evaporation) and is a better measure of atmospheric heat than temperature alone. [“In theory, there is no difference between theory and practice; but in practice, there is” (Jan LA Van de Snepschent).] The following examples may illustrate the point better: -

• Once, we were about to cancel a speed-march, where commandos carrying 25 kg load had to cover 40 km in seven hours, due to high temperature of over 42⁰C. An evening shower brought it down to a comfortable 30°C and we went ahead as planned. But I failed to notice the increased humidity, which caused suffered severe exhaustion in the troops subsequently.
• We did a Six Sigma project ‘Reducing Electricity Consumption in a hotel’, where constant internal conditions are maintained round the year. We sub-metered the electric supply and found that AC plant uses 40% of electricity. Then we recorded ambient temperature and electric consumption round the year and found that electricity consumption actually peaked when ambient temperatures were low during the monsoon. The only plausible explanation was that high relative humidity puts a heavy load on the AC plant.
• A desert cooler is useful in dry areas where temperature can be 47⁰C. If the power goes off, the temperature goes up and the high RH makes it unbearable, making it preferable to go outdoors in the hot but dry air.
• The rains in the plains of North India have a cooling effect, but when the clouds clear next day, the high relative humidity makes it unbearable.
• A place with 25⁰C with very high relative humidity is hot and uncomfortable. [32⁰C with 50% RH has heat index of 34⁰C, whereas 30⁰C with 90% RH has heat index of 41⁰C in the chart below].
• Look up https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Heat_index.

Heat index at varying temperature and relative humidity is given in the following table: -

Temp	RH
	50%	55%	60%	65%	70%	75%	80%	85%	90%	95%
30⁰C	31⁰C	32⁰C	33⁰C	34⁰C	35⁰C	36⁰C	38⁰C	39⁰C	41⁰C	42⁰C
32⁰C	34⁰C	36⁰C	37⁰C	39⁰C	41⁰C	44⁰C	46⁰C	49⁰C	51⁰C	54⁰C
34⁰C	38⁰C	40⁰C	42⁰C	44⁰C	47⁰C	49⁰C	52⁰C	55⁰C	58⁰C	62⁰C
36⁰C	43⁰C	46⁰C	48⁰C	51⁰C	54⁰C	58⁰C	61⁰C	65⁰C	69⁰C	74⁰C

Greenhouse Gases. The second fallacy is ‘the greenhouse effect (trapping of heat in the atmosphere) is attributed to CO₂, water vapor and substitutes for ozone depleting compounds (ODCs)’. The term ‘Greenhouse Effect’ comes from greenhouse, which is a glass structure that allows incoming sunlight and stops the escape of heated air through convection currents. CO₂ and water vapor are essential for plant growth and hence called greenhouse gases (GHG). CO₂, a colorless gas, is considered the cause of global warming due to its ‘ability to absorb long wavelength infrared heat radiation’ but an increase of 0.01% (from 0.03% to 0.04%) is quite insignificant overall. The actual cause of ‘Climate Change’, hiding in plain sight, is visual obscuration of atmospheric haze that reaches well beyond 10 km altitude. Smokestacks emitting thick smoke commonly depict global warming. Dark bodies absorb more light/ heat as compared to lighter ones and the visible haze consists of black carbon SPM (Suspended Particulate Matter) that absorbs both incident and reflected radiations and heats up air twice over. This causes global warming and inhibits normal precipitation. The effect may appear insignificant; just as moths/ dust particles are visible in a movie’s projection beam, but do not perceptibly reduce picture brightness. Clear sunny days are warm and cloudy days are cool (because sunlight is reflected back). Conversely, clear nights are cool as heat is radiated out into space and cloudy nights are warm as clouds trap radiated heat in the atmosphere. Both smoke and clouds reduce visibility, but clouds reflect solar radiations back into space. Small particles have higher surface area and absorb more heat/ light radiations than larger particles. The dark haze of SPM traps solar heat, both incoming and reflected/ radiated by day; and also radiated heat at night. Trash/ crop waste burning, vehicular exhaust, industrial emissions, low grade fires, etc create SPM. Aerosols are a suspension of solid/ liquid particles in air. SPM and chemical aerosols provide nuclei for suspended water droplets to create smog. Temperature inversion in winter aggravates smog and air pollution. Hence, meaningful weather parameters should include relative humidity along with temperature; wind speed and direction; and degree of visual obscuration along with SPM count. Two misconceptions are that; firstly, a suspension of ‘reflective’ material can reduce global warming; and secondly, a huge cloud of suspended dust from volcanic eruptions caused the ice ages.

Ozone Hole. The third fallacy is ‘the ozone hole is caused by ozone depleting compounds’ (ODCs). The current hypothesis attributes ozone depletion to a mere 1.2 to 3 ppb of ODCs in the stratosphere. Ozone is produced when oxygen in air absorbs UV radiation or is exposed to electrical discharges. Air subjected to Vacuum UV treatment produces about 0.5% ozone and pure oxygen subjected to cold plasma produces 5% ozone. Conversion of oxygen into ozone and back again is a continuous reversible reaction leaving a net quantity of ozone at all times. The total ozone content in air is 0.6 ppm, while it is 2 to 8 ppm in the stratospheric ozone layer. Deforestation and burning of biomass/ fossil fuels has increased CO₂ in the atmosphere from 280 ppm to 400 ppm (1 ppm of CO₂ equals 10 tons/ sq km; or over 5 billion tons for earth). Aircraft further deplete oxygen in the lower stratosphere. Hydrogen (in hydrocarbons) burns to produce water, which merges with the natural water cycle and cannot be measured.

Example:   CH₄ + 2O₂ = 2H₂O + CO₂

Thus a 120 ppm increase in CO₂ would correspond to a much greater reduction of oxygen. Ozone depletion may actually be due to the relatively huge (> 200,000 ppb) oxygen depletion, the raw material for ozone. Unabsorbed UV radiations thus pass into the troposphere to produce ozone that degrades rubber, plastics, etc. [Albert Einstein rightly said “Not everything that can be counted counts, and not everything that counts can be counted”.]

Carbon-sequestration. The fourth fallacy is ‘CO₂ can be sequestered by burying it deep underground or under the seabed’. This concept is most unrealistic and unreliable, as CO₂ being a gas would escape through the smallest fissures. We already know the difficulty in disposing of radioactive waste. Photosynthesis is the only effective method that sequesters both CO₂ and hydrogen (from water) to release O₂ into air with an efficiency of 0.1 to 8%, but forests (the living carbon bank) are systematically cleared. Deforestation must stop immediately and tree-plantation carried out on a war-footing.

Rainwater Harvesting. The fifth fallacy is ‘Rainwater Harvesting replenishes underground aquifers’. Natural percolation of groundwater has reduced due to paving of urban spaces, reclaiming water bodies and deforestation. Once, we used a fire hose (at 120 psi) to flush out a rainwater harvesting pit and the sediment that came out indicated how clogged it was. Groundwater may rise where leaking sewage contaminates groundwater.

Forests. Trees are the building blocks or foundation of eco-systems, providing food and shelter to birds and animals. Chlorophyll in leaves absorbs all wavelengths of sunlight except green for photosynthesis, making green the environmental color. The atmosphere is cooled as trees absorb UV and IR rays and also transpire, which attracts rain (conversely, urban heat islands inhibit rain). We were camping in a 500 m wide tree belt that prevented sand-storms clogging a canal in the Thar Desert, when a large cloud came and rained for half an hour, soaking the sand about a foot deep. Barren desert sand dunes close-by did not get any rain, clearly showing that the cooling effect of trees caused rain. Trees also carry out ionization that settles SPM and removes air pollution; give timber, fuel, etc.; slow down falling rainwater and leaf litter stops surface run-off/ soil erosion; burrowing animals facilitate groundwater percolation.

Conclusion. The difference between the weather and money is that people talk about the weather without doing anything about it, and make money without talking about it (the latest is COP-21). We must understand the root causes of environmental degradation and stop further damage while we still can. We forget the gravity of past natural disasters and hope they do not recur. Over-reliance on fossil fuels has isolated us from nature and if we live like there is no tomorrow, there may actually be none. We are literally and figuratively walking on thin ice. The industrial and economic revolutions are taking us towards self-destruction and an ecological revolution is needed now. The Earth rejuvenated itself after the Dinosaur Age, and can do so again if humans ruin it now. My hypothesis may please be verified and if found satisfactory, a concerted awareness campaign launched to clear the air. [John F Kennedy said “We have the power to make this the best generation of mankind in the history of the world- or to make it the last”.]

GLOBAL WARMING: A New Perspective

GLOBAL WARMING: A New Perspective

(Published in SUPREMACY Vol. 2 Issue 12 MAY 2008)

"The Earth provides enough to satisfy every man’s need, but not for anybody’s greed."

Mahatma Gandhi

"We must look for that, which we have been trained not to see"

Ann Scales (Yule Law Journal, 1986)

Global Warming Worries 

All aspects of our environment and factors that support life on Earth are like parts of a jigsaw puzzle, which cannot be understood piece-meal; and are even less perceptible to those who do not lift their heads from the daily grind of making money. It is imperative to look at our environment with a fresh perspective, to stop the degradation due to the exploitation of natural resources.  Hence for sustainable development, we must get maximum value from the barest minimum resources.

       The changing weather patterns indicate that Global Warming is real, and has a big impact on our lives.  We now consider damage caused by weather as inevitable.  Presently, the various theories propagated on environmental issues for quick-fix solutions are bound to go against Nature’s Laws. The present generation is like a frog swimming in a pool that is gradually heating up, and ultimately dies.

Greenhouse Effect

Global warming is attributed to the greenhouse effect caused by carbon dioxide and humidity in air.  The structure of a greenhouse is actually responsible for trapping heat, and it is only incidental that carbon dioxide and humidity that benefit plants are also present.  We produce vast quantities of visible smoke from fossil fuels and low grade fires having measurable obscuration, yet ignore that dark objects absorb light and heat.  Clouds/ fog that look like cotton wool reflect sunlight and heat back into space. The scale of deforestation, along with increased consumption of fossil fuel indicates that we may be overdrawn from the hydrocarbon bank.  It may be of interest that Mumbai used to be clearer/ cooler a few years ago.

Effects of Human Activities

It is a known fact that primordial Earth was warmer and had considerably more carbon dioxide than today, which was gradually sequestrated into fossil fuels (storing prehistoric solar energy) that we use as chemical energy now. Transportation is a non-value-added activity; however since powerful auto-makers want to dispose of their current stocks, they resist progress on developing hydrogen/ hybrid/ electric cars.  The building industry is an indicator of the economic boom, but nobody notices that carbon dioxide, trapped millions of years ago in limestone, is released, when processed into cement. Economic policies giving tax sops need reconsideration, to reduce wasteful spending and environmental damage.

Garbage disposal is a big business that involves transportation and incinerators (both produce carbon dioxide), landfills or ocean dumps (not in my backyard syndrome).  Even if garbage is out of sight and out of mind, the problem remains. Composting garbage, locally, with aerobic methods is cost effective and also revitalizes farmlands.  We consider water to be unlimited, but only use the last rainwater stored in artificial lakes that are silting up. Our water bills are grossly subsidized with neither penalty for wastage, nor incentive for conservation. A total revamp of our plumbing/ drainage system can help segregate/ recycle waste water to optimize effluent treatment and reduce consumption.

Rise in Humidity/ Sea Level

Water exists on Earth in three forms, viz. ice, water and vapour, constantly converting from one form to the other with seasons, to give a balance we are used to. Water vapour (humidity) carries the latent heat of evaporation (540 cal/ gm), and melted ice carries a latent heat of freezing (80 cal/ gm).  So, the huge quantity of melted ice and humidity in air means Earth needs a strict calorific diet.  Heat Index (including the humidity component) and not just temperature would be an accurate measure of global warming.  This was seen while conducting a speed-march test for a commando unit (a 40 km walk in seven hours with a load of 25 kg), with summer day temperatures in the plains of North India crossing 42°C. A flash pre-monsoon shower brought down the temperature perceptibly, which it was felt, would prevent heat exhaustion in soldiers, but the heat index remained just the same due to increased humidity, and sweating did not help dissipate heat, but, on the contrary, caused dehydration.

The increase in sea level may not be perceptible yet, because equivalent melt-water from glaciers and polar ice-caps is simply converted into higher humidity in air. Glaciers that feed the flow of perennial rivers during the dry season are shrinking due to a combination of soot deposition that absorbs solar energy, and increased rain that melts ice, to cause floods. Increased relative humidity in air has the makings of the next great flood (remember Noah’s Ark came handy during the last one), and rainfall is likely to be very heavy in isolated pockets cooled by trees, night-time or winters.  One evening, personnel camping at the tree-belt grown to prevent sand-storms choking the water flow of Indira Gandhi Canal, experienced considerable rain over the camp, while the barren Thar Desert nearby did not get any. Trees prevent soil erosion and help recharge underground aquifers, so the long-term potential of damage due to deforestation must be considered.

Hazardous Technology

It is said that development in technology has led to our present problems, and that technology itself should give the solution.  Ironically, we are trapped by the inertia of current technologies, habits and lifestyles propagated in modern living, and actually resist change.  We first convert all forms of alternative energy into ‘conventional’ electricity or fuel, use electricity for heating, cooling, ventilation, running machinery, etc.  We use electric treadmills to workout, and then yet more electricity to pump water up overhead tanks; but surely, technology can help us workout to pump water, reuse waste heat from air-conditioners and refrigerators to preheat water, and use energy efficiently.  Dan Brown, author of ‘Angels and Demons’ says “we have lost faith in alternative energy, because we exploited it before ensuring the safety of nuclear and efficiency of solar energy”.

Oxygen Depletion

The term ‘Ozone Hole’ gives an impression that ozone blocks the passage of harmful ultra-violet rays through the atmosphere, whereas, actually, UV rays are absorbed when oxygen is converted into ozone.  The drop in atmospheric oxygen, along with increase of pollutants (CFC, etc.) hinders the absorption of UV rays, and it could more appropriately be called an ‘Oxygen Hole’.  Ironically, only UV rays can degrade plastic waste littering earth; (nylon ropes/ fabric weaken at places having prolonged exposure to sunlight).

A raised level of carbon dioxide is the first step for production of carbon monoxide, which can be fatal at very low levels.  Photosynthesis sequestrates not just carbon, but also hydrogen, as hydrocarbons, which give out carbon dioxide and water vapour, when burnt; so measuring only the increase in carbon dioxide does not indicate the actual depletion of oxygen.  To stop this downslide we must ensure compensatory forestation and ban indiscriminate burning/ incineration.  Some ‘authorities’ have questioned the capacity of forests to produce oxygen; and it may be worthwhile to study the factors like season, water/ nutrient availability, etc. that facilitate photosynthesis by plants, and rely on this efficient natural method for sequestrating carbon dioxide.

Change Required 

We can improve the way we exploit natural resources, by following the principles of Reduce (conspicuous consumption), Reuse (life-long Vs disposable) and Recycle (convert old material back to new goods), before it is too late.  The intelligentsia can use management techniques like Six Sigma that includes defect identification and elimination, cause and effect, root cause analysis, process prioritization (the 80-20 rule), counter-measures and benefit tracking, etc, to guide the ignorant masses.  This will be an uphill task as the film ‘An Inconvenient Truth’ says, “You can’t make somebody understand something, if their salary depends upon them not understanding it”.

We need to repair, renovate, use existing resources optimally and find innovative sources of renewable energy to save the goose that lays golden eggs, viz. Earth.  We should understand what is good for our collective well-being, and not just for individual profits/ luxury.  Thinkers and leaders, capable of organizing effort at the right time, place, scale and purpose, can still conserve our environment.  Life on Earth has revived anew after the Dinosaur Age; and this phase of warming may be just a slight fever for the planet, but we may not survive, if we don’t stop the damage now.  We must understand the structure, functioning and value of our environment that supports life on Earth, and respect it as God’s creation; for the sake of our own conservation.

Finally, to conclude-

Ø    "The world we have created is a product of our thinking; it cannot be changed without changing our thinking."

Albert Einstein

Ø    "I do not feel obliged to believe that the same God who has endowed us with sense, reason and intellect, has intended us to forgo their use"

Galileo Galilee

Ø    “The question is not so much whether there is life on Mars as whether it will continue to be possible to live on Earth”

Jack Handy