Sunday 10 January 2016

CLIMATE CHANGE HYPOTHESIS


CLIMATE CHANGE- HYPOTHESIS

“A fact is a simple statement that everyone believes in. It is innocent unless found guilty. A hypothesis is a novel suggestion that no one wants to believe. It is guilty unless found effective”.
(Edward Tell)

 That ‘humans are not responsible for climate change’ is a comforting notion; but my hypothesis states that ‘humans are responsible for climate change and can stop it by tackling real causes’ (and not effects/ symptoms). The term ‘Global Warming’ has lost credibility in the last few years due to extremely cold winters in some parts of the world. Extreme weather is a baffling phenomenon in ‘Climate Change’, with some places getting hotter and drier; torrential rain/ snowstorms in winter; and increasing Antarctic sea ice. Increase in average temperature by 3C is likely with the present state of affairs and drastic attempts are being made to keep it well below 2C. Presently, precipitation is untimely, too much or too little, which affects food production. The south-western monsoon that normally reached Mumbai in first week of June now arrives only in end-July. Europe and USA face severe winter snowstorms, and even Niagara Falls has frozen over. Storms, hurricanes, tornados and floods are more frequent and severe.
The Measure of Warming. The first fallacy is ‘to measure global warming in terms of temperature alone’. Heat Budget is the perfect balance between incoming heat absorbed by Earth and outgoing heat escaping it in the form of radiation. If the balance is disturbed, Earth would get progressively warmer or cooler with time. The water and day-night cycles maintain this balance, with ice (latent heat- 80 cal/ gm) and humidity in air (latent heat 540 cal/ gm) playing a big role. Warm air that flows over water bodies is cooled by evaporation, which moderates temperature and increases relative humidity. This causes the ‘sticky thermometer syndrome’.  Warm summer air holds greater quantities of water vapor and triggers heavy precipitation as it cools during monsoon or rises against a mountain. Increased water vapor (relative humidity) is the effect and not the cause of warming and leads to extreme weather like the cloudburst in Uttarakhand of 2013 and floods in Chennai. Monsoon in Pune earlier used to be a steady drizzle for three days, followed by a few days of sunlight that boosted plant growth, which has changed now. The theoretically acceptable increase of 2⁰C in ‘average global temperature’ is misleading, because increasing relative humidity will be intolerable. ‘Heat Index’ of air takes into account water vapor (latent heat of evaporation) and is a better measure of atmospheric heat than temperature alone. [“In theory, there is no difference between theory and practice; but in practice, there is” (Jan LA Van de Snepschent).] The following examples may illustrate the point better: -
  • Once, we were about to cancel a speed-march, where commandos carrying 25 kg load had to cover 40 km in seven hours, due to high temperature of over 42⁰C. An evening shower brought it down to a comfortable 30°C and we went ahead as planned. But I failed to notice the increased humidity, which caused suffered severe exhaustion in the troops subsequently.
  • We did a Six Sigma project ‘Reducing Electricity Consumption in a hotel’, where constant internal conditions are maintained round the year. We sub-metered the electric supply and found that AC plant uses 40% of electricity. Then we recorded ambient temperature and electric consumption round the year and found that electricity consumption actually peaked when ambient temperatures were low during the monsoon. The only plausible explanation was that high relative humidity puts a heavy load on the AC plant.
  • A desert cooler is useful in dry areas where temperature can be 47⁰C. If the power goes off, the temperature goes up and the high RH makes it unbearable, making it preferable to go outdoors in the hot but dry air.
  • The rains in the plains of North India have a cooling effect, but when the clouds clear next day, the high relative humidity makes it unbearable.
  • A place with 25C with very high relative humidity is hot and uncomfortable. [32⁰C with 50% RH has heat index of 34⁰C, whereas 30⁰C with 90% RH has heat index of 41⁰C in the chart below].
  • Look up https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Heat_index.
Heat index at varying temperature and relative humidity is given in the following table: -
Temp
RH
50%
55%
60%
65%
70%
75%
80%
85%
90%
95%
30C
31⁰C
32⁰C
33⁰C
34⁰C
35⁰C
36⁰C
38⁰C
39⁰C
41⁰C
42⁰C
32C
34⁰C
36⁰C
37⁰C
39⁰C
41⁰C
44⁰C
46⁰C
49⁰C
51⁰C
54⁰C
34C
38⁰C
40⁰C
42⁰C
44⁰C
47⁰C
49⁰C
52⁰C
55⁰C
58⁰C
62⁰C
36C
43⁰C
46⁰C
48⁰C
51⁰C
54⁰C
58⁰C
61⁰C
65⁰C
69⁰C
74⁰C

Greenhouse Gases. The second fallacy is ‘the greenhouse effect (trapping of heat in the atmosphere) is attributed to CO2, water vapor and substitutes for ozone depleting compounds (ODCs)’. The term ‘Greenhouse Effect’ comes from greenhouse, which is a glass structure that allows incoming sunlight and stops the escape of heated air through convection currents. CO2 and water vapor are essential for plant growth and hence called greenhouse gases (GHG). CO2, a colorless gas, is considered the cause of global warming due to its ‘ability to absorb long wavelength infrared heat radiation’ but an increase of 0.01% (from 0.03% to 0.04%) is quite insignificant overall. The actual cause of ‘Climate Change’, hiding in plain sight, is visual obscuration of atmospheric haze that reaches well beyond 10 km altitude. Smokestacks emitting thick smoke commonly depict global warming. Dark bodies absorb more light/ heat as compared to lighter ones and the visible haze consists of black carbon SPM (Suspended Particulate Matter) that absorbs both incident and reflected radiations and heats up air twice over. This causes global warming and inhibits normal precipitation. The effect may appear insignificant; just as moths/ dust particles are visible in a movie’s projection beam, but do not perceptibly reduce picture brightness. Clear sunny days are warm and cloudy days are cool (because sunlight is reflected back). Conversely, clear nights are cool as heat is radiated out into space and cloudy nights are warm as clouds trap radiated heat in the atmosphere. Both smoke and clouds reduce visibility, but clouds reflect solar radiations back into space. Small particles have higher surface area and absorb more heat/ light radiations than larger particles. The dark haze of SPM traps solar heat, both incoming and reflected/ radiated by day; and also radiated heat at night. Trash/ crop waste burning, vehicular exhaust, industrial emissions, low grade fires, etc create SPM. Aerosols are a suspension of solid/ liquid particles in air. SPM and chemical aerosols provide nuclei for suspended water droplets to create smog. Temperature inversion in winter aggravates smog and air pollution. Hence, meaningful weather parameters should include relative humidity along with temperature; wind speed and direction; and degree of visual obscuration along with SPM count. Two misconceptions are that; firstly, a suspension of ‘reflective’ material can reduce global warming; and secondly, a huge cloud of suspended dust from volcanic eruptions caused the ice ages.
Ozone Hole. The third fallacy is ‘the ozone hole is caused by ozone depleting compounds’ (ODCs). The current hypothesis attributes ozone depletion to a mere 1.2 to 3 ppb of ODCs in the stratosphere. Ozone is produced when oxygen in air absorbs UV radiation or is exposed to electrical discharges. Air subjected to Vacuum UV treatment produces about 0.5% ozone and pure oxygen subjected to cold plasma produces 5% ozone. Conversion of oxygen into ozone and back again is a continuous reversible reaction leaving a net quantity of ozone at all times. The total ozone content in air is 0.6 ppm, while it is 2 to 8 ppm in the stratospheric ozone layer. Deforestation and burning of biomass/ fossil fuels has increased CO2 in the atmosphere from 280 ppm to 400 ppm (1 ppm of CO2 equals 10 tons/ sq km; or over 5 billion tons for earth). Aircraft further deplete oxygen in the lower stratosphere. Hydrogen (in hydrocarbons) burns to produce water, which merges with the natural water cycle and cannot be measured.
Example:   CH4 + 2O2 = 2H2O + CO2
Thus a 120 ppm increase in CO2 would correspond to a much greater reduction of oxygen. Ozone depletion may actually be due to the relatively huge (> 200,000 ppb) oxygen depletion, the raw material for ozone. Unabsorbed UV radiations thus pass into the troposphere to produce ozone that degrades rubber, plastics, etc. [Albert Einstein rightly said “Not everything that can be counted counts, and not everything that counts can be counted”.]
Carbon-sequestration. The fourth fallacy is ‘CO2 can be sequestered by burying it deep underground or under the seabed’. This concept is most unrealistic and unreliable, as CO2 being a gas would escape through the smallest fissures. We already know the difficulty in disposing of radioactive waste. Photosynthesis is the only effective method that sequesters both CO2 and hydrogen (from water) to release O2 into air with an efficiency of 0.1 to 8%, but forests (the living carbon bank) are systematically cleared. Deforestation must stop immediately and tree-plantation carried out on a war-footing.
Rainwater Harvesting. The fifth fallacy is ‘Rainwater Harvesting replenishes underground aquifers’. Natural percolation of groundwater has reduced due to paving of urban spaces, reclaiming water bodies and deforestation. Once, we used a fire hose (at 120 psi) to flush out a rainwater harvesting pit and the sediment that came out indicated how clogged it was. Groundwater may rise where leaking sewage contaminates groundwater.
Forests. Trees are the building blocks or foundation of eco-systems, providing food and shelter to birds and animals. Chlorophyll in leaves absorbs all wavelengths of sunlight except green for photosynthesis, making green the environmental color. The atmosphere is cooled as trees absorb UV and IR rays and also transpire, which attracts rain (conversely, urban heat islands inhibit rain). We were camping in a 500 m wide tree belt that prevented sand-storms clogging a canal in the Thar Desert, when a large cloud came and rained for half an hour, soaking the sand about a foot deep. Barren desert sand dunes close-by did not get any rain, clearly showing that the cooling effect of trees caused rain. Trees also carry out ionization that settles SPM and removes air pollution; give timber, fuel, etc.; slow down falling rainwater and leaf litter stops surface run-off/ soil erosion; burrowing animals facilitate groundwater percolation.
Conclusion. The difference between the weather and money is that people talk about the weather without doing anything about it, and make money without talking about it (the latest is COP-21). We must understand the root causes of environmental degradation and stop further damage while we still can. We forget the gravity of past natural disasters and hope they do not recur. Over-reliance on fossil fuels has isolated us from nature and if we live like there is no tomorrow, there may actually be none. We are literally and figuratively walking on thin ice. The industrial and economic revolutions are taking us towards self-destruction and an ecological revolution is needed now. The Earth rejuvenated itself after the Dinosaur Age, and can do so again if humans ruin it now. My hypothesis may please be verified and if found satisfactory, a concerted awareness campaign launched to clear the air. [John F Kennedy said “We have the power to make this the best generation of mankind in the history of the world- or to make it the last”.]

15 comments:

  1. The rate at which we're going it looks more likely that we'll be the last not the best.

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  2. Hello Satish

    Thank you for writing this comprehensive summary on your blog. I hope that you'll carry on blogging.

    You asked for feedback, I have a couple of points, and I'll send them to you privately, if I may.

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  3. I believe in your hypothesis. However, I also feel our efforts would always fall short - causes you have enumerated - human beings are fixated on money, and environment comes a poor second. I see no hope unless some serious calamity befalls the earth!

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  4. Hi Satish,

    This is a good write up. I didn't know about rain water harvesting not working - read some reports that said a little different. Will check those and let you know. However, this is a very good analysis about the state of things and possible future outcomes; some people here till believe that global warming isn't occurring !!

    Keep at it Satish - thanks for sharing and blogging!! Jai S.

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  5. Satish, agree on the SPM which has emerged this winter in Delhi as the villain which has got us the moniker of being the dirtiest city in the world. May be in Pune in first week Feb, let us chat on this.

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  6. Colonel, superb essay and timely too. Regards, Zenobia

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  7. Hello Colonel Satish Vaidya ji !
    Good to hear from you, I feel that you have taken lots of pains to write such a beautiful article. Really appreciate your efforts.
    I was going through your article and was little confused when I read that your speed march was cancelled due to high temperature and was revived when temperature got down to 30 deg, but found exhausted friends due to higher heat content at lower temperature and increased humidity, while your table later showed higher temperature with higher RH linear way, may be that the atmosphere did take time to bring down the humidity with lowered temperature, still I find that you are doing great job for the humanity and I appreciate your efforts, thanks for remembering your old friend.

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    1. This comment has been removed by the author.

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  8. Here I see the time against my comment is given as 18:01, 15 Jan 2016, whereas I am working at 1115 hrs IST, 16 Jan 2016, which country is that?
    Let us clear the clutter anyway, ref article 'http://climate.envsci.rutgers.edu/pdf/LawrenceRHdewpointBAMS.pdf', where we find the definition of relative humidity and its relation with temperature and dew point temperature.
    Thus when I am at Balasore, Orissa, beside the sea water, water vapour is almost reaching saturation point or humidity is very high, there even if the temperature is say 25 degree C, you are sweating more and feel very hot and exhausted, where as at Pune we feel cooler and normally we don't sweat easily at that temperature.
    Thus we have to take some other common factor which makes the difference, it is energy, so we can measure the amount of energy instead of taking temperature for differentiating - please check
    http://www.shorstmeyer.com/wxfaqs/humidity/humidity.html

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    1. You are right, it is energy and not just temperature. The example of Balasore and Pune is also right. In the Heat Index Chart, 30⁰C with 50% RH has heat index of 31⁰C, whereas 32⁰C with 85% RH has heat index of 49⁰C. One more example is using a desert cooler in Jaisalmer where temperature can be 47⁰C. If the power goes off, the temperature starts rising and it becomes unbearable due to the high RH. It is preferable to go outdoors in the hot but dry air. Another example is the rains in the plains of North India have a cooling effect, but the next day when the clouds clear, it becomes unbearable due to high relative humidity. You can look up https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Heat_index

      Replied at 21:30 hours

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  9. Great research Satish. Extensive use of ACs including cars are also creating heat imbalances. I always thought that due to refraction the IR and UV have a change of wave length which on reflection cannot escape the glass or atmospheric blanket. The reason for car cabin extremely hot in summers parked in open. We have the fashion of have glass walls in almost every building housing malls, offices etc. These all are green houses. You use additional tonnage of Chiller to make it AC. There are in fact so many small measures that need to be taken.
    Once again compliments for a very educative piece.

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